Aslan Karatsev vs Lloyd Harris Prediction | H2H | Stats | Analysis: Dubai Open 2021

Aslan Karatsev vs Lloyd Harris: Preview

The stage is set for a big battle between two in-form players who are on a giant-killing spree recently. Aslan Karatsev locks horns against Lloyd Harris in the finals of the Dubai Open.

Aslan Karatsev prevailed in a tight three-setter in the all-Russian clash against the second seed Andrey Rublev in the semifinals. 

The 27-year-old started the match with a bang winning the first set 6-2 in just 35 minutes. However, Rublev fought back to level the proceedings by taking the second set 6-4 as Karatsev failed to convert 5 breakpoint opportunities.

A single break of serve in the third set was enough for Karatsev as he clinched the match 6-2 4-6 6-4. He also put an end to Rublev's impressive 23-match winning streak in ATP 500 tournaments. The Russian's numbers stood out as he smashed 7 aces, fired 41 winners, and claimed 77% of his first-serve points. 

"It was a really tight match against a very tough opponent, it was an unbelievable performance from Andrey, he did not lose a match at ATP 500 events in one year, everything was decided in one or two points, I feel happy," said Karatsev mighty pleased after a close win against his countryman Rublev.

“I will prepare myself mentally and physically, and then we will see what happens tomorrow, I know Lloyd is a good player with experience," opined Karatsev disclosing that he will be raring to go ahead of the finals in Dubai.

On the other hand, Harris fought back from the brink of defeat to oust the third seed Denis Shapovalov in three sets in the semis. 

The Canadian was leading by a set and was about to win the match in straight sets when his serve failed with two double faults in a row handing the second set to the South African. The two players gave it their all in the deciding set and Harris won it 7-6 (8) to storm into the finals.

Harris who came through two rounds of qualifying to enter the main draw of the tournament pounded 12 aces, clinched 79% of his first-serve points, and also saved 2 out of 3 breakpoints.

“I don’t have many words right now, I am super happy with that win, being a set and 2-4 down is mentally and physically a little bit troublesome for me, but I found my best tennis from there, I am just extremely happy with the result right now," expressed Harris after his terrific come-from-behind victory against Shapovalov.

Head to Head Record

This is the first meeting between Aslan Karatsev and Lloyd Harris on the ATP Tour.

Cracker of a Contest: Karatsev's prior big-match experience gives him a slight edge against an in-form Harris. Image Credits - Getty Images

Key Insights

  • Aslan Karatsev is the first wildcard player to reach the Dubai Open finals since Thomas Muster in 1997.
  • The Russian is playing his third final of 2021 (ATP Cup - Won and Doha Open Doubles with Rublev - Won).
  • Llyod Harris is featuring in his first-ever ATP 500 final in his career.
  • Karatsev has an 11-2 win-loss record in 2021.
  • Harris has won 7 matches in the last 7 days.
  • The South African tennis player has also defeated three seeded players (Dominic Thiem, Filip Krajinovic, and Shapovalov) in this tournament.
  • Aslan Karatsev has ousted four seeded players (Evans, Lorenzo Sonego, Jannik Sinner, and Rublev).
  • Karatsev and Harris will aim to become the fourth player to win their maiden title this season after Dan Evans (Murray River Open), Alexei Popyrin (Singapore Open), and Juan Manuel Cerundolo (Cordoba Open).
  • Harris is the first-ever qualifier to reach the final of the Dubai Open.
  • Harris is playing his second final on the ATP Tour after losing the Adelaide Open finals in straight sets to Rublev last year.
  • If Aslan Karatsev wins the Dubai Open, he will reach the 27th spot in the ATP Rankings.
  • Karatsev will be placed at the 33rd spot in the ATP Rankings if he loses the Dubai Open finals.


Karatsev vs Harris: Game Analysis

Aslan Karatsev has troubled his opponents with relentless returning. The Russian can play aggressively and go for his shots according to the situation of the match. He can dominate the rallies by forcing his rivals to stay behind the baseline.

Lloyd Harris has been impressive with his composure in pressure situations and fearlessness against higher-ranked players. 

He has worked hard on his game with his coach Anthony Harris and Xavier Malisse, a retired Belgian player who was ranked as high as 19 during his peak. The South African can also win a lot of points by firing aces with his big-serve.

How the stats pan out for Karatsev and Harris in the Dubai Open 2021

Player NameKaratsevHarris
Double Faults27 9
Points Won on First Serve75.60%83.60%
Points Won on Second Serve67%57%
Breakpoints Saved Rate35.08% 
(20 out of 57)
(14 out of 27)
Sets Lost43
Win-Loss Record in Tiebreaks0-12-2

Aslan Karatsev vs Lloyd Harris: Prediction

The fast conditions in Dubai suit both Karatsev's quick returning and Harris's dependency on his serve as a vital weapon. Harris has spent more time on the court and played two matches extra than Karatsev. Though Karatsev is considered to be a late bloomer, 2021 has been the dream year for him having cracked into the top 45 of the rankings with a spot under 30 also waiting if he wins the Dubai Open.

This match could go down to the wire with fine margins separating the winner and the loser. The winner would go with full confidence to the Miami Open in Florida starting on March 22.

Prediction - Aslan Karatsev to win in three sets and win the ATP-500 Dubai Open

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