What are the chances for India at the ICC WC 2023

History sets up a pattern, In 2011, India as a host nation won the World Cup. In,2015, Australia as a host won it fair and square. In 2019 England huffed and puffed to win the cup, that too as a host.

In 2019, I wrote an article stating why India will not win the World Cup and here I am writing as to why I rate India as the favorite to win the World Cup. India has been brushing aside the opposition and they have won 15 out of the last 19 matches. To top it all they are no 1 side in all 3 formats of Cricket a noteworthy and creditable feat.

Winning depends on 6 factors. Openers, Middle order, Spinners, Pacers, Captain and Pitch. Let us discuss each factor in a statistical analysis.

Openers

Opening stands sets the tone of a team. More often than not openers have paved the victory.

India has Shubman and Rohit as openers. Please have a look at the chart for the average and strike rate. The combined average the Indian average is way more than the average of any other team. Shubman is the leading scorer in the world and his average is mind-boggling. Rohit is known as Hit Man, he can destroy and he can hit hundreds. These two can put fear in any attack. The next best is England and Australia.  I have not taken Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Netherlands, as contenders so their figures are not collated.

Middle-order

If openers fail then it is upto middle order to build innings and they should have boundary hitters. Please refer to the details of middle-order batsmen from 6 countries, who I believe are in contention.

Virat, Rahul, Shreyash, Hardik, and Sky can graft innings as well as hit boundaries at will. Indians have the best average followed by Pakistan and England. 

However, the demerit of the Indian contingent is that India doesn't have all-rounders. In 2011, Raina, Yuvraj could bowl well and protect some bowlers. England has Livingston and Moeen. Australia has Stoinis, Green, and Marsh. Pakistan has Iftikhar and Baig.

The statistics show that Indians have the best average and strike rate. So on this front, India emerges as the top team.

Spinners

We have created a table of strike rates and the Economy. You will observe that Kuldeep Yadav has the best strike rate among all spinners. His exploits in the Asia cup have created an apprehension among batters. Zampa and Adil Rasheed follow Kuldeep. Jadeja has one of the worst strike rates but one of the best economy rates. This explains why Ashwin and Jadeja were not there in the scheme of things.

In the Spin department, South Africa, England, and India rank better than others. So Again India emerges as one of the front runners.

Pace Bowlers

Now this is the first time Indian pace bowlers are top of the pile. However, India's obsession with Bumrah should go. Both Siraj and Shami have performed much better than Bumrah in One Dayers. I still feel not playing Shami in 2019 cost India the Cup. He took 4 wickets in a match then he was dropped. At every TV appearance, I have talked about Bumrah not being the same bowler after injury. However, Pakistan, Australia, England, South Africa, New Zealand, and India are in very close grouping in the pace bowlers front but Pakistan and Australia take the top 2 spots.

Captain

Rohit Sharma is the understated captain. He won against Dhoni as Captain in the IPL. He has taken India to the top position in all 3 formats. 

In ODIs, Rohit has captained 26 matches and won 19 matches, winning percentage is 73.08%. For the records, Dhoni won 55% of matches and Virat 58 %. So statistically Rohit is way ahead.

Similarly, in comparison with other captains like Buttler, Babar (64), and Smith, he is better than them. It is just that we appreciate others as we have not done data analytics.

Pitch

India has a knack for losing big matches like both World Test Championships final and semifinals of 2019 and 2015. Some Indian players are prone to movement off the pitch and collapse takes place. In 2015 one burst of Mitchell Johnson finished India. In 2019 opening spell of  Boult finished India. Both world test championship finals took place In England where the ball moved so Indians fell prey to movement. 

In India, the Indian team is unbeatable and their victories in bilateral tournaments show their prowess. Now venues are Chennai, New Delhi, Ahmedabad, Pune, Dharmshala,   Lucknow, Mumbai, and Kolkata.  So only Dharmshala, Pune, and Lucknow can create problems. India will find it easy as others are flat pitches and Indian batters will have a field day.

In view of that, we can say that for Indian pitches Indian batsmen are superior to any other team. Their Pacers are decent if they remain fit. On the spin front, Ashwin will be better than Jadeja. Earlier Jadeja used to bat very well but in the last 18 matches his average is only 13 with a strike rate of 57. He has become a very good test batter at the expense of one-day batting.

Then against left-handers, both Kuldeep and Jadeja are left-armers so we need Ashwin as he is a threat to left-handers. The write-up can not be complete without discussing the worst tail in the world which is India. Kuldeep, Siraj, Bumrah and Shami are no good as batters.So if collapse takes place there is no rear guard action All other pace bowlers like Cummins, Afridi, Woakes, Southee, and Jansen can hit sixes but not Indians. 

Still, India has the most balanced team and India will be the most probable winner if pitches play to their reputation.

Happy Viewing!

Cover Credits: ICCofficial