Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev: Nitto ATP Finals Preview and Prediction

Second seed Rafael Nadal sets up an exciting clash against the fourth seed Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals of the ATP Finals

Key Insights:

  • Rafael Nadal leads the head to head record 3-0 against Medvedev.
  • The Spanish Tennis Maestro is aiming to win the ATP Finals title for the first time in his career after finishing as the runner-up in 2010 and 2013.
  • Daniil Medvedev is playing his first semifinals at the year-ending tournament.
  • They both played each other in last year's tournament where Nadal won in three sets after saving a match point in the third set.
  • This is the first semifinal for Nadal at the O2 Arena since 2015.
  • Medvedev will top his group irrespective of the outcome of his upcoming match against Diego Schwartzman.


Rafael Nadal trounced the defending champion, Stefanos Tsitsipas in three sets to enter the semifinals for the sixth time. The Spaniard mixed up his play efficiently and approached the net more frequently. 

Daniil Medvedev was ruthless as he outplayed Novak Djokovic 6-3 6-3. His powerful forehand has seen a lot of improvement in London and he is getting a lot of free points on his booming first serve. His terrific defense and flat hitting have made him accustomed to the indoor conditions. 

Nadal needs to take a strong initiative from the baseline or else he will succumb to the Russian's tricky and unorthodox game. He has to use a mix of deft angles, drop volleys, and no-hesitation overhead shots along with his venomous topspin forehand to trouble Medvedev. 

Concerns have also been raised about the haphazard scheduling as the Spaniard gets a day's rest before the semifinals while on the other hand, Medvedev has to finish his match against Schwartzman and plays Nadal later on the same day. 

The 'King of Clay' has adjusted to the low bouncing indoor courts very well. “I am looking forward to play against probably the player who is playing better the past couple of weeks, and I am excited about that, let's see, it is going to be an amazing challenge and I hope to be ready for it," said Nadal ahead of his blockbuster showdown against Medvedev. 

If Medvedev keeps his unforced errors low and keeps Nadal at the back of the court with his deep groundstrokes, the latter could be in big trouble. The Spaniard has been serving well in the tournament so far and that will be a vital factor in deciding the outcome of this match. 

Prediction - Rafael Nadal to win in three sets.

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