NBA 2026–27 Season: Five Teams That Could Surprise Everyone

The 2026–27 NBA season is approaching, and after one of the league's busiest offseasons in recent memory, predicting the contenders has become more difficult than usual. Several established stars have changed teams, young players are entering important stages of their careers, and a number of franchises have completely reshaped their rosters. The regular season begins on October 20, with the defending champion New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Boston Celtics, Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs among the teams featured on opening night. While teams such as the Knicks, Thunder and Spurs will naturally receive plenty of attention, there are several less obvious teams that could make a significant jump.

Here are five NBA teams that could surprise everyone in the 2026–27 season:

1. Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks could be one of the most interesting teams to watch this season. Atlanta finished the previous campaign strongly, reportedly going 19–5 down the stretch and 20–6 after the All-Star break. Instead of making a dramatic overhaul, the Hawks focused on adding depth and defensive-minded players around their young core. Their offseason moves included bringing in Devin Carter, Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Ryan Nembhard while retaining veterans such as CJ McCollum and Jock Landale. The Hawks still have plenty of young talent. Jalen Johnson remains one of the team's most important players, while Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker give Atlanta additional defensive and playmaking options. The biggest question is whether Atlanta has enough elite scoring to compete with the strongest teams in the Eastern Conference. If Johnson takes another step forward and the Hawks' defense remains strong, however, they could move from being a dangerous team to a genuine playoff threat. Why they could surprise: Strong finish last season, young talent and improved defensive depth.

2. Portland Trail Blazers

The Portland Trail Blazers may be the biggest wildcard on this list. Portland made one of the offseason's most intriguing moves by acquiring former All-Star guard Ja Morant from the Memphis Grizzlies. The addition gives the young Trail Blazers a proven offensive creator and a player capable of changing the tempo of a game almost instantly. Morant's arrival changes the ceiling of the team. Portland already had promising young players, but the team lacked the kind of established star who could consistently create opportunities when games became difficult. Morant potentially fills that role. The challenge will be chemistry. Portland has to integrate Morant into a young roster while also finding the right balance between developing its future core and competing immediately. If Morant stays healthy and the young players around him develop quickly, Portland could challenge for the Play-In Tournament and potentially go further. That would represent a major step forward for a franchise that has been rebuilding. Why they could surprise: The addition of a former All-Star gives a young roster an entirely different offensive ceiling.

3. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors drew 26 points in the surprise poll, third-most in the league, and the reason is simple: Stephen Curry's window isn't just still open, it's audibly creaking shut. Jimmy Butler gave Golden State a real second star last spring, and the front office spent the offseason surrounding them with just enough youth and length to matter. The veteran-window sleeper is the most reliable archetype in the league — a team with two future Hall of Famers, a coach who knows exactly what October through April is for, and no pressure whatsoever from the outside. If the legs hold, a 50-win Warriors season surprises absolutely no one inside the building and everyone outside it.

4. New Orleans Pelicans

After Orlando moved on from Jamahl Mosley, the Pelicans handed him the head coaching job - and that hire might quietly be the best value pick of the entire carousel. New-coach bounce is one of the most documented sleeper indicators in sports, and the Pelicans have spent years as a roster that consistently outperformed its record only when healthy. Zion Williamson playing a full season remains the single biggest swing factor in the Western Conference, and Trey Murphy III is knocking on the door of a true breakout. If Mosley brings the defensive structure Orlando lacked, New Orleans goes from "injury-prone afterthought" to a play-in team with a real ceiling. Nobody outside Louisiana is picking them. 

5. Miami Heat

It is difficult to call Miami a traditional dark horse after the team's blockbuster offseason, but the Heat deserve a place on this list. Miami landed Giannis Antetokounmpo, giving the franchise one of the NBA's most dominant players and dramatically changing its championship outlook. ESPN's early 2026–27 Heat preview describes the acquisition as creating one of the league's most dangerous frontcourts. The Heat also added veteran shooting and depth, including Klay Thompson, according to the NBA's offseason transaction tracker. The key issue will be how quickly the new-look roster develops chemistry. Giannis has spent his career attacking the basket, creating transition opportunities and putting enormous pressure on opposing defenses. Miami's system, meanwhile, has traditionally emphasized discipline, versatility and defensive intensity. If those philosophies fit together, the Heat could quickly become one of the Eastern Conference's most difficult teams to beat. They may not surprise people by reaching the playoffs, but they could surprise the league by becoming a serious championship contender.

The biggest theme of the new NBA season could be changed. The offseason has already produced major moves across the league. LeBron James moved to Philadelphia, Ja Morant joined Portland, Giannis moved to Miami and Jonathan Kuminga joined Minnesota. The NBA's official offseason tracker highlights how extensive the movement has been across all 30 teams. That means preseason predictions could become outdated very quickly. The 2026–27 season also introduces a fascinating collection of new matchups. The regular season begins October 20, while the Emirates NBA Cup group stage starts on October 30. For fans, that uncertainty is part of the excitement. The biggest teams may dominate the headlines, but NBA history repeatedly shows that unexpected teams can emerge during an 82-game season. Injuries, chemistry, young-player development and midseason trades can completely change the playoff picture.

Cover Credits NBA.com