French Open 2021 Predictions & Odds: Statistical Analysis of Top 7 Men's Singles Contenders

Countdown to the French Open 2021:

The landmark 125th edition of Roland Garros is all set to take place in Paris from May 30 to June 13 this year. 

Sportco analyzes the French Open 2021 predictions and odds of the leading contenders who have a great chance to clinch the prestigious championship.

Meaning of Odds - Odds of +100 on a player means for a $100 bet, a player would win $100.

1) Rafael Nadal 

The 13-time French Open champion will be hungry to claim another grand slam on his favorite surface. A title this year in Paris would take Nadal to the top of the grand slam winners list with 21 in his cabinet. 

The Spaniard has also won the French Open for the last 4 years in a row which indicates his invincibility. 

Todd Woodbridge, a former Australian tennis player said "For Rafa not to win, he has to get an incredibly tough draw that lines up the dangerous players one after the other". 

Rafael Nadal's Roland Garros 2021 Draw:

R1: Popyrin, R2: Gaston/Gasquet, R3: Sonego/Norrie, R4: Sinner/Monfils,                                     QF:  Rublev/Schwartzman, SF: Djokovic/Federer, and F: Medvedev/Thiem

Rafael Nadal winning the French Open trophy in 2020
A record 14th French Open title awaits the King of Clay as he aims to extend his supremacy in the tournament.                                 Image Credits - ATP Tour

The French Open 2021 predictions and odds of Rafa winning are -112. Fans need to bet $112 on Nadal to win $100.

The stats that give Rafael Nadal a big edge in the French Open are

Player NameRafael Nadal
Win-Loss Record 
in the French Open
Win-Loss Record in 
Finals in Paris
% of Return points won on 
First Serve in Clay in last 1 year
(Highest on the ATP Tour)
Breakpoints converted49.4% 
(Highest on the ATP Tour)
Return Games won41.8% 
(Highest on the ATP Tour)

2) Novak Djokovic: 

Djokovic is a former French Open champion having won the tournament in 2016. The World number 1 has been quite consistent in Roland Garros in the last two years. 

He lost a five-set thriller to Thiem in the semifinals in 2019 followed by a straight-set defeat to Nadal in the finals in 2020. 

Goran Ivanisevic, the coach of Novak Djokovic has backed him to beat Nadal in the French Open if they end up on the same side of the draw (could clash in the semifinals).  

Djokovic's path to Roland Garros 2021 title: R1: Sandgren, R2 Pouille/Cuevas, R3: Humbert, R4: Goffin, QF: Federer, SF: Nadal, and F: Thiem/Tsitsipas

Novak Djokovic
Djokovic will be bidding to become the first player in the Open Era to win each major two times if he clinches the French Open in 2021. Image Credits - Reuters

The French Open 2021 predictions and odds of Novak Djokovic winning the tournament are +375

Some top stats for Djokovic on Clay are 

Player NameNovak Djokovic
Number of times finished 
as Runner-up
4 (2012, 2014, 
2015, and 2020)
% of Return points won 
on the First Serve in Clay 
in last 1 year
39.9% (Second Best 
on the ATP Tour 
behind Nadal)
% of Return points won 
on the Second Serve 
in Clay in last 1 year
54% (Third Best on the ATP Tour 
behind Diego Schwartzman 
and Nadal)

3) Stefanos Tsitsipas 

A maiden ATP Masters 1000 triumph in Monte Carlo, a runner-up finish in the ATP-500 Barcelona Open followed by a triumph in the ATP-250 Lyon Open, this is the best chance for Tsitsipas to clinch the French Open.

The Greek lost a close five-setter to Djokovic in the semifinals last year in Paris. 

Tsitsipas will aim to not lose matches from strong positions as a few inconsistent games have proved to be the turning point in his eight losses this season.

Stefanos Tsitsipas
Eyes firmly on the crown: Tsitsipas will aim to win the biggest title of his life when he takes to the courts in Paris. Image Credits - Agence France Presse (AFP).

The French Open 2021 predictions and odds of Stefanos Tsitsipas winning the tournament are +600

Some splendid stats for Tsitsipas that give him an advantage are 

Player NameStefanos Tsitsipas
% of Points won during 
First serve on Clay in last 1 year
73.3% (more than 
Djokovic - 71.5% 
and Nadal - 69.7%)
% of Service Games won84.6% (more than 
Nadal - 84.2% 
and Djokovic - 82.2%).
Win-Loss Record on Clay in 202116-3

4) Dominic Thiem

Though not in his best form, Thiem can up the ante in Paris having finished here as a runner-up twice (in 2018 and 2019 - lost to Nadal both times). 

Dominic Thiem has an inconsistent 9-7 win-loss record in 2021. His one-handed backhand will have to come out firing on all cylinders as he targets another shot at the French Open title.

Thiem's Roland Garros 2021 Draw: R1: Andujar R2: Delbonis/Albot, R3: Fognini/Fucsovics, R4:Ruud/Hurkacz, QF: Zverev/Agut, SF: Medvedev/Tsitsipas, and F: Djokovic/Nadal

Dominic Thiem
The Prince of Clay - Thiem will aim to first get to the second week of Roland Garros without losing many sets. Image Credits - Tennishead

The French Open 2021 predictions and odds of Dominic Thiem winning the tournament are +800

Know the numbers behind Thiem’s prowess on the red dirt.

Player NameDominic Thiem
Best performances 
in the French Open
2-time finalist (2018 and 2019) 
and 2-time semifinalist 
(2016 and 2017)
% of First Serve Points landed 
on Clay in last 1 year
65% (Second best on 
the ATP Tour 
behind John Isner)
% of Points won on 
Second serve on Clay 
in the last 1 year
57.1% (Second best on 
the ATP Tour 
behind Nadal - 58%)
% of Deciding Sets won 
on Clay in last 1 year
80% (More than Nadal - 75%, 
Djokovic - 55.6%,
and Tsitsipas - 42.9%). 

5) Alexander Zverev

Zverev was unstoppable in the Madrid Open where he beat Nadal in the quarterfinals and Thiem in the semifinals (both wins in straight sets each). The German won the ATP-1000 tournament, outlasting the hard-hitting Matteo Berrettini in 3 sets.  

However, Alexander Zverev has never crossed the quarterfinal stage at Roland Garros in 5 attempts. 

Zverev will depend on his big-serve and cross-court forehand to do the damage in Paris.

Alexander Zverev
Zverev has all the weapons in his game to go all the way in Paris. Image Credits - Getty Images

The French Open 2021 predictions and odds of Alexander Zverev winning the tournament are +1800

Analyzing how Zverev has fared on clay in the last 1 year?

Player NameAlexander Zverev

% of Points won 

on First Serve

73.1% (More than 

Djokovic - 71.5% 

and Nadal - 69.7%)

% of Deciding 

Sets won

62.5% (More than 

Djokovic - 55.6% 

and Tsitsipas - 42.9%)

Win-Loss Record in 20219-3

6) Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev has had a fairly consistent clay-court season. 

Rublev reached the quarterfinals of the French Open last year and lost to the fifth seed Tsitsipas in straight sets. He also has an impressive 29-8 win-loss record in 2021. 

The Russian youngster has this uncanny ability to strike a series of winners.  

Andrey Rublev
Rublev will have to do justice to his incredible talent in Roland Garros 2021. Image Credits - Getty Images

The French Open 2021 predictions and odds of Andrey Rublev winning the tournament are +2500

Evaluating Rublev’s performance on clay this season

Player NameAndrey Rublev
Win-Loss Record9-4
% of Points won on First Serve74.4% 
(more than 
Tsitsipas - 73.3% 
Zverev - 73.1%, 
Thiem - 71.8%, 
Djokovic - 71.5%, 
and Nadal - 69.7%)
% of Deciding Sets won66.7% (more than 
Zverev - 62.50%, 
Djokovic - 55.6%, and 
Tsitsipas - 42.9%). 

7) Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud is in a rich vein of form after winning the ATP-250 Geneva Open last week (beat Shapovalov in straight sets in the finals). 

Ruud has crashed out of the third round in his last two French Open appearances in 2019 (beaten by Federer in straight sets) and 2020 (lost to Thiem in straight sets). 

Casper Ruud's draw for the Roland Garros 2021: R1 - Paire, R2: Marchzak / Cazaux, R3: Hurkacz / Fokina, R4: Thiem / Fognini, QF: Zverev/Agut, SF: Tsitsipas, and F: Nadal / Djokovic

Casper Ruud
If he sticks on with his consistency, Ruud can easily make it at least to the quarterfinals of the French Open 2021. Image Credits - Associated Press (AP). 

The French Open 2021 predictions and odds of Casper Ruud winning the tournament are +5000

Looking back at Ruud’s run on the red dirt in 2021

Player NameCasper Ruud
Win-Loss Record15-4
% of Points won on First Serve71.3% 
(more than Nadal - 69.7%)
% of Deciding Sets won76.9% 
(more than Nadal - 75% 
and Zverev - 62.50%)
% of Tiebreaks won76.9% (more than 
Tsitsipas - 75% 
and Nadal - 66.7%)

French Open Predictions & Odds Final Table:

French Open 2021PredictionsOdds
Rafael NadalWinner-115
Novak DjokovicSemi-Finals+375
Stefanos TsitsipasFinalist+600
Dominic ThiemSemi-Finals+800
Alexander ZverevQuarter-Finals+1800
Andrey RublevQuarter-Finals+2500
Casper RuudRound 4+5000

Do share with us your take on our predictions and odds for the French Open 2021. Stay tuned ahead of an action-packed two weeks at Roland Garros 2021.

Featured Image Credits - Getty Images

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